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We study stress, pressure, and rock properties in evolving accretionary wedges using analytical formulations and geomechanical models. The evolution of the stress state from that imposed by uniaxial burial seaward of the trench to Coulomb failure within the wedge generates overpressure and drives compaction above the décollement. Changes in both mean and shear stress generate overpressure and shear‐induced pressures play a particularly important role in the trench area. In the transition zone between uniaxial burial and Coulomb failure, shear‐induced overpressures increase more than overburden and are higher than footwall pressures. This rapid increase in overpressure reduces the effective normal stress and weakens the plate interface along a zone that onsets ahead of the trench and persists well into the subduction zone. It also drives dewatering at the trench, which enables compaction of the hanging‐wall sediments and a porosity offset at the décollement. Within the accretionary wedge, sediments are at Coulomb failure and the pore pressure response is proportional to changes in mean stress. Low permeability and high convergence rates promote overpressure generation in the wedge, which limits sediment strength. Our results may provide a hydromechanical explanation for a wide range of observed behaviors, including the development of protothrust zones, widespread occurrence of shallow slow earthquake phenomena, and the propagation of large shallow coseismic slip.

Subduction megathrusts exhibit a spectrum of slip modes, including catastrophic earthquakes. Although the mechanical and frictional properties of materials sampled from subduction zones have been studied extensively, few datasets have been collected for compositions and at pressure and temperature conditions representative of those in situ. The Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan is a well‐studied margin, and abundant data provide an opportunity to advance our understanding of fault and earthquake physics. Here, we use samples exhumed in the Shimanto and Sanbagawa Belts on Shikoku Island of southwest Japan that represent analogs for materials along the present‐day megathrust at depths of ∼5–>25 km, and we shear these at their peak in situ pressure‐temperature (P‐T) conditions. Effective normal stresses range from 28 to 192 MPa, and temperatures from 105°C to 470°C. We used pore fluid pressures of 45–240 MPa, corresponding to fluid overpressure ratiosλof 0.65 and 0.90. Slip velocities of 0.1–100 μm/s were used, in order to focus on the nucleation of instability and earthquakes. We found predominantly velocity‐strengthening (inherently stable) behavior under all conditions forλ = 0.65. Forλ = 0.90, velocity‐weakening behavior was observed at 350°C, with velocity‐strengthening behavior at lower and higher temperatures. The rate/state frictional stability parameter (a‐b) increases with slip velocity at temperatures up to ∼200°C and remains constant or decreases with slip velocity at higher temperatures. Overall, our results demonstrate the potentially important roles of both temperature and slip velocity in controlling the distribution of stress and frictional rheology along subduction thrusts.

Seafloor pressure sensor data is emerging as a promising approach to resolve vertical displacement of the seafloor in the offshore reaches of subduction zones, particularly in response to slow slip events (SSEs), although such signals are challenging to resolve due to sensor drift and oceanographic signals. Constraining offshore SSE slip distribution is of key importance to understanding earthquake and tsunami hazards posed by subduction zones. We processed seafloor pressure data from January to October 2019 acquired at the Hikurangi subduction zone, offshore New Zealand, to estimate vertical displacement associated with a large SSE that occurred beneath the seafloor array. The experiment included three self‐calibrating sensors designed to remove sensor drift, which, together with ocean general circulation models, were essential to the identification and correction of long‐period ocean variability remaining in the data after applying traditional processing techniques. We estimate that long‐period oceanographic signals that were not synchronous between pressure sensors and reference sites influenced our inferred displacements by 0.3–2.6 cm, suggesting that regionally deployed reference sites alone may not provide sufficient ocean noise correction. After incorporating long‐period ocean variability corrections into the processing, we calculate 1.0–3.3 cm of uplift during the SSE offshore Gisborne at northern Hikurangi, and 1.1–2.7 cm of uplift offshore the Hawke's Bay area at central Hikurangi. Some Hawke Bay displacements detected by pressure sensors near the trench were delayed by 6 weeks compared to the timing of slip onset detected by onshore Global Navigation Satellite System sites, suggesting updip migration of the SSE.